The LEEP Seminar Series brings together scholars from around the world to share their research in environmental, resource and energy economics, through a friendly and collaborative platform.

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Programme Spring 2026

25th March 2026, 14:00-15:00: Evidencing Commitments to Inclusive Research Culture for Transdisciplinary Researchers by Jaya Gajparia

13th May 2026, 14:00-15:00:  Nick Hanley, University of Glasgow

10th June 2026, 14:00-15:00: The impact of climate change on fisheries by Fabio Cevenini, University of Trento

Abstract: This study investigates the economic impact of climate change on fisheries by providing the first causal estimate of the effect of sea surface temperatures (SST) variations on fishing revenues. We formalize this relationship within a theoretical model and estimate it empirically using over 2.5 million spatially disaggregated observations of fishing revenues from European vessels (2013–2022), matched with satellite-based SST data. The identification strategy leverages a novel exposure metric, Marine Degree Days, which quantifies species-specific temperature exposure relative to biologically established thermal tolerance intervals. Within this framework we address key identification challenges unique to the fisheries context, including non-random spatial selection by fishers and ecological interdependencies across species. We find that deviations from species’ thermal preferences, whether colder or warmer, lead to significant losses in fishing revenues, with hot exposure causing the most pronounced impacts. These effects are mediated by species’ typical depth ranges, and ecological category. Projections across different climate scenarios point to widespread revenues declines by 2100, reaching 800 million of annual losses in the worst scenario, though impacts vary considerably by region. Lower-income, equatorial areas are expected to suffer the most, while some colder regions may see modest gains. Taken together, our findings reveal the asymmetric and non-linear effects of ocean warming on fisheries, reinforcing the urgent need for adaptive strategies to support marine-based livelihoods.