Meier, S, Strobl, E and Elliott, R.J.R (2024) Springer Nature
Abstract: Wildfires are often associated with their immediate, visible impacts, such as the destruction of homes, infrastructure, and forests. However, the indirect and potentially long-lasting consequences, particularly those related to smoke exposure, receive far less attention. Our research focuses on these oftentimes overlooked effects, using the Great Fire of 1910 as a case study to explore both short- and long-term outcomes.
We combine historical fire perimeter maps, smoke dispersion models, and digitised mortality and census records from 1900 to 1940 to analyse the impact of wildfire-sourced smoke exposure. During the fire week, we find a 119% increase in mortality among children under five in smoke-affected areas. This sharp rise underscores the significant health risks posed by wildfire smoke, even for populations far removed from the flames.
The long-term consequences are equally concerning. Decades later, men who were exposed to smoke as young children experienced lower socioeconomic outcomes than their peers. By 1930, smoke-exposed individuals ranked 7-11% lower on composite measures of occupation, education, and prestige, and by 1940, their earnings were approximately 4% lower than those of men who were not smoke-exposed in their early childhood. These findings reveal that the impacts of wildfire smoke extend well beyond its immediate aftermath, affecting human capital and economic well-being for decades.
As climate change increases the frequency and severity of wildfires, understanding these persisting effects is crucial for developing comprehensive policies. Addressing wildfire risks requires more than just fire suppression — public health strategies must prioritise vulnerable communities to mitigate the long-term consequences of smoke exposure. Without such measures, the hidden costs of wildfires will continue to accumulate, undermining societal well-being for generations to come.
